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  4. Form Analysis: Albion Park Aug 02

Form Analysis: Albion Park Aug 02

RACE ONE

SHEGOTSASS (2)
has had the perfect start to her career and last start made it a six-pack of success, taking her record to 6 from 6. Showing that she can do it chasing and from the front, she looks too smart for the same horses she has been beating.

NO LOVE ABOUT IT (1) has been runner-up in all 5 appearances against SHEGOTSASS, with the 6m margin on debut the closest he has been able to get to the smart filly. He stepped cleanly before releasing last start and can be best of the rest again.

INDEFENSIBLE (3) has done everything right in his 2 starts and last time out was cleanly away and only grabbed in the closing strides. He will make a solid play for the 2nd tier of the victory dais.

SELECTIONS: SHEGOTSASS (2), NO LOVE ABOUT IT (1), INDEFENSIBLE (3)
SUGGESTED BET: SHEGOTSASS (2) to win

RACE TWO

Two heats of this APG Series will be held with EXPENSIVE EGO (7) already looking to have a mortgage on the Final following his superb win in the G1 Triad Final. That win, at his 3rd career start was a huge performance where he did a power of work in an arrogant victory. He looks too good.

TARGARYEN HANOVER (2) settled in the running line here on Tues when hitting the line in good style to grab the silver, finishing within 2m of the passing lane winner LEFT A HURRIKANE. That followed a tough run from the 2nd line and from the improved gate can fire the 1st shots.
 
ALBION ARK (4) made an error in the Triad Final when resuming from a break and that ended his chances. A smart all the way winner here 3 starts back, he can look for redemption here.

OUR BALOU (5) was sent to the breeze from gate 10 in the Triad Consolation but in a strongly run mile couldn’t hold on and faded in the closing stages. Limiting the work, he can chime in late.

 

SELECTIONS: EXPENSIVE EGO (7), TARGARYEN HANOVER (2), ALBION ARK (4), OUR BALOU (5)
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi trifecta 7 / 2-4-5

RACE THREE

BROADWATER (3) secured a cosy trip from gate 1 last start at Redcliffe and when the passing lane presented, he sprinted well to grab the silver behind the smart mare AQUA MISS. Forced to work from the 2nd row 2 starts back, he can press forward and look to claim his 1st victory of 2019.

WHOSTOLEMYPIGEON (4) was a nice winner last start when sitting outside and putting away FLYING WINGARD to claim a new career benchmark. Not suited the start prior when snagged back early and trying to chase, he can roll ahead from this alley and will look to apply the acid in the run.

BANGKOK BRAVADO (5) should appreciate this contest after meeting some tougher opponents in recent starts. Locked away from inside the 2nd line last start, he will be right in the fight here.

SPLASH OF GOLD (1) is yet to hit the board in 5 appearances here at AP, yet from this gate she will get all the favours in transit. With an economical trip on offer she can chime into the place money.

SELECTIONS: BROADWATER (3), WHOSTOLEMYPIGEON (4), BANGKOK BRAVADO (5), SPLASH OF GOLD (1)
SUGGESTED BET: BROADWATER (3) to win

RACE FOUR

The 2nd of the two APG heats for the 2YO’s and leaning towards what might prove to be a bit of an upset with TOANUI SPIRIT (1) looking to get the right conditions. The filly has had plenty of starts for the term, yet has been consistent in each. The Morris team must have upset the barrier gods when arriving in Qld, her only start closer than gate 5 in her past 9 she struck PELOSI. This can be her day.

MUMMYS BOY (5) was a scratching for the recent Triad Consolation but will look to make amends here. Only facing the starter twice, he was a winner 2nd up when finding the line in good style. Taken to the trials for a pipe-opener, he wasn’t pushed late in a nice hit-out. He can challenge in this.

FEEL THE THUNDER (3) has shown steady improvement and his past 2 have been solid, placing in each. Beaten a nose hair 2 starts back when leading them up, he can be gripping on here.

BRIGHTON PRINCE (7) was hitting the line in nice style last start at Redcliffe after striking some trouble in the run. Arriving on the line here 2 starts back from the 2nd line, look for him closing hard.

SELECTIONS: TOANUI SPIRIT (1), MUMMYS BOY (5), FEEL THE THUNDER (3), BRIGHTON PRINCE (7)
SUGGESTED BET: TOANUI SPIRIT (1) to win

RACE FIVE

CASINO TOMMY (7) has the tough gate to overcome here, yet he is starting to find a niche in the claiming grade with two wins and two 2nds in his past 5 in this company. Rolling to the breeze from gate 4 at Redcliffe last time, he packed too many guns. Beaten narrowly 2 starts back, he can prevail.

COMPLY OR DIE (8) is back in familiar territory, with Ronny Sallis getting the band back together, claiming him last start and Narissa McMullen back in the bike. Finding winning form via the passing lane last start, he will be requiring some luck in transit from the gate, yet in a typically open claimer he is in the mix.

JAX NAVARO (2) will strip fitter following his latest hit-out when returning from a spell. Settling in the 1x1 trail he hit the line in good order to grab the bronze at Redcliffe and won’t be far away here.

ONE WISE MAN (6) faced a tough trip last start when stuck trying to find position, yet he was still strong to the line when 6m from the winner CASINO TOMMY. He won’t be far away.

SELECTIONS: CASINO TOMMY (7), COMPLY OR DIE (8), JAX NAVARO (2), ONE WISE MAN (6)
SUGGESTED BET:

RACE SIX

STOMPEM (7) needs to overcome the wide gate, but he was a winner from this alley 6 runs back when taking short-cuts and finishing best along the passing lane. His run 2 starts back behind TOM ME GUN was a nice effort which was franked with a Redcliffe win next start. This is within reach.

OUR LITTLE DIGGER (4) might not know what to do from this gate, having been closer than gate 6 just once in his past 21 starts and not at all in the past 12 months. Luckless here 2 back, he was given time to balance up in the stretch at Redcliffe last start, he closed out well when 3rd to AQUA MISS.

IN THE PAPER (12) was huge in victory here 2 starts back over this trip when he looked to have blown his chances with an error, yet somehow rallied to score. Close-up last start, he is in the mix.

SCHOUTEN ISLAND (2) rolled forward from gate 5 and was doing the hard yards in the breeze last start and only faded in the closing strides behind AQUA MISS. From the good gate he can challenge.

SELECTIONS: STOMPEM (7), OUR LITTLE DIGGER (4), IN THE PAPER (12), SCHOUTEN ISLAND (2)
SUGGESTED BET: Exotics 2-4-7-12

RACE SEVEN

COREY WILLIAM (1) hasn’t been too far away in some unsuitable assignments and with the return to the good gate and back to the mile, he can look for victory and take his stake earnings past $100,000 in the process. Only 3m from FAME ASSURED 3 starts back, gate 7 and 2138m just wasn’t his cup of Lipton last time. This is ideal.

BRADS LUCK (8) covered plenty of the AP oval last start from gate 5 and fighting gamely when within 10m of the winner TENNYSON BROMAC in a strong mile. He attacked the line in good style here 3 starts back from gate 11 and with a cosy trip on offer here can be ready for the closing shot.

THE ANOOUNCER (9) struck trouble in the run last start and that ended his chances. Too far back when trying to chase behind ONE HELL OF A RIDE 2 starts back, he can look for cheap runs in this.

BRADNESS ELDEFUEGO (5) was 2nd up in Qld last start when working home wide off the track from a 2nd line gate. Within 5m of MAFUTA VAUTIN when 1st up, he can be around the mark against these.

SELECTIONS: COREY WILLIAM (1), BRADS LUCK (8), THE ANOOUNCER (9), BRADNESS ELDEFUEGO (5)
SUGGESTED BET: COREY WILLIAM (1) to win

RACE EIGHT

ONE HELL OF A RIDE (11) was after successive wins to launch a new chapter with the Jarrod Alchin barn when starting a 3s on favourite and blowing the start to make tickets confetti before going a yard. His 1st up start was a power running masterclass, clinical in putting them away. He can atone.

WITH AUTHORITY (2) found conditions to suit last start when holding the premier position from the inside alley and dictating to score a tidy victory in solid time. He can look to press on to the lamp lighting duties again here and from the front will be trying to fight them off.

ILLAWONG DREAMTIME (1) speared out from gate 6 to find the pegs before releasing here 2 starts back and then finished with too much wind in the sail to score. Not suited last start, he will be probing for the gaps.

SKYFELLA CAM (3) has been freshened since his last race appearance when finishing mid-field in a qualifier. Best of the rest behind a big winner in SMOOTH SAILOR 2 starts back, he can bob-up.

SELECTIONS: ONE HELL OF A RIDE (11), WITH AUTHORITY (2), ILLAWONG DREAMTIME (1), SKYFELLA CAM (3)
SUGGESTED BET: ONE HELL OF A RIDE (11) to win

RACE NINE

TOMMY UNDER FIRE (8) will need some factors in his favour, including getting to the passing lane with momentum. He was working home wide off the track last start in a strong closing 800m and the start prior he attacked the line strongly when 3rd to SECRETAGENT TYCOON. Jus needs the luck.

GOTTA MOMENT (10) set a strong tempo here last start when looking to take them all the way, with the opening price of a 26.3 1st 400m proving too expensive. Forced to work in the breeze at Redcliffe 2 starts back, if he can get the right cart into the contest he can be making a closing play.

IMA BIRUBI BOY (5) rolled the sleeves and did the hard yards here on Tues when facing the breeze and fighting gamely for the silver behind COBBBLER LANE. With a similar effort he won’t be far away.

NADEEN FRANCO (4) was angled to the pegs from the 2nd row last start and going luck hunting was able to find the line in nice style for a 2m 2nd. Back into the main draw she is in the mix.

SELECTIONS: TOMMY UNDER FIRE (8), GOTTA MOMENT (10), IMA BIRUBI BOY (5), NADEEN FRANCO (4)
SUGGESTED BET: TOMMY UNDER FIRE (8) to win